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The Utility of Partial Truth and Provisional Probability
Logic is often concerned with the notion of truth and falseness or the 0's and 1's of computer calculation. For we humans however does an idea have to hold true in every circumstance to be useful or rewarding? In every day life we use rules-of-thumb or heuristics to solve problems in a satisfactory fashion that might be less than perfect. Scientific theories can be richly descriptive of the world and have predictive power and only be true in a restricted set of circumstances.
Newtonian physics is used by those building the space craft of today. Relativistic physics however shows us that despite its utility Newtonian physics cannot be considered 'true' under all circumstances. In biology or medical research a theory that has a provisional probability of being true on an arbitrary 95% or 99% of occasions is regarded as having utility. Clearly a medication that is completely efficacious for all patients at all times would be more desirable than one that only works only on a fraction of people or on a limited number of occasions. However we now accept that medicine does not function on the basis of absolute certainty.
If we choose to perturb a functionally complex system (such a person, a parasite, a plant or a planet) with an experimental procedure it no longer seems necessary to assume that the resulting hypothesis or belief always holds true. Revealed truth or dogma and experimental 'fact' with a probable truth value of certainty (or 100%) is simply not necessary to make intellectual and practical progress in the world. There seems to be a satisfaction however in certainty because it allows us to make useful predictions about the world or lets us feel that a task, understanding, has been completed or achieved.
On the Philosophy of Belief
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Scotland, 12th October 2007 and thereafter
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